Community Vital Signs - First Community Foundation Partnership

Community Vital Signs

This Vital Signs report was prepared by The Institute on behalf of First Community Foundation Partnership of Pennsylvania to serve as a report card for North Central Pennsylvania’s progress on key indicators of community strength and vitality. The data points presented in this report were selected after consultation with representatives from a variety of community organizations and stakeholders.

Data collected in the report spans several major categories covering many aspects of life in North Central Pennsylvania:

People – population dynamics, diversity, and migration trends
Housing – affordability, physical characteristics, and blight
Income & Poverty – financial security, food security, and unemployment
Economic Development – industries, wages, and the labor market
Education & Workforce – graduations, high education attainment, and disconnected youth
Health & Wellness – health care, chronic disease, behavioral health, and violent crime
Recreation & Resources – arts funding, tourism, environmental preservation, parks, and broadband
Older Adults – senior centers, skilled care, and disabilities

Each category is summarized with a table showing the prevailing trend (increasing, decreasing, or no change) of indicators across the period analyzed.

Dashes are shown in the table where data across multiple years was not available. The indicators are also color-coded for ease of interpretation, with green indicating positive changes or indicators of increasing strength, red indicating negative changes or indicators of increasing challenge, and gray indicating changes that are neutral, i.e., where an indicator getting “better” or “worse.” These color codes do not necessarily correlate with the prevailing direction of an indicator (increasing, decreasing, or no change) as one indicator increasing may be seen as a positive sign while for another indicator a decrease would be considered positive.

The first section of this report identifies indicators related to the population of the six-county region. Indicators cover census population totals, racial and ethnic diversity, language diversity, and migration trends. Data utilized in this section includes the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and Population Estimates, both of which publish data annually. Not all demographic breakdowns from the 2020 Census have been released at the time of this publication.rnrnThe official Census population of the six-county region has consistently decreased over the last several years. Each county had fewer residents in 2022 than in 2017, and the largest proportional decreases occurred in Union, Columbia, Snyder, and Northumberland Counties, with declines of 4.3 percent, 2.5 percent, 2.3 percent, and 1.7 percent, respectively. Lycoming County’s population fell by 0.8 percent and Montour County saw a loss of one percent. Considering trends since 2000, five of the six counties saw continued declines, though Union County saw a small increase (0.2 percent) compared to 2000.rnrnMigration data is sourced from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). While there was significant variation in the trends across the six counties, five of the six counties have negative net migration totals for the 2015-2020 period. Only Columbia County has a positive net migration total for the period. However, in 2019-2020 alone, both Northumberland and Union Counties experienced inward net migration (58 residents and 30 residents, respectively). During the same period, Lycoming, Montour, and Snyder Counties saw outward net migration. Except for Lycoming County, which has experienced only outward migration since 2015, all counties have had periods of both inward and outward net migration.rnrnMost of the six-county region’s population ranges in age from 25 years to 54 years, with a considerable share between 65 and 74 years as well. For each county, the smallest share of the population is 85 years and over. However, the next smallest population share is generally comprised of younger residents. In Columbia County, for example, residents under the age of five comprise the second smallest share of the county’s population. Except for residents between the ages of 15 and 19 years in Montour County (6.7 percent), the share of the population 24 years old and younger in Montour and Northumberland Counties is smaller than that of the share aged 75 to 84 years (6.6 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively). Similarly, the next smallest population shares in Snyder and Union Counties are comprised of residents nine years and younger.rnrnThe relatively low ratio of children to senior citizens in the six-county region indicates potential challenges to the region’s future workforce, because there will be fewer residents to fill jobs as many Baby Boomers continue to exit the workforce. This, however, is a national challenge. Part time and remote employment of older adults needs to be a consideration for businesses. Furthermore, the longer lifespans of many of today’s older adults means there will be an increased need for support services for older adults.rnrnMost residents of the six-county region are White (89.8 percent). This proportion is higher than the statewide percentage (75.0 percent). Additionally, the proportion of Black or African American residents in this region (3.4 percent) is significantly lower compared to the Commonwealth’s overall proportion (10.9 percent). Similarly, the proportions of Asian residents (1.1 percent) residents who identify as another race (1.3 percent), and residents who identify as being two or more races (4.2 percent) are also lower in the six-county region than they are statewide (3.9 percent, 3.9 percent, and 6.0 percent, respectively). Lastly, the proportion of American Indian and Alaska Native residents in the region (0.2 percent) is identical to the statewide proportion (0.2 percent). The proportion of Hispanic or Latino residents in the region (3.3 percent) is lower than Pennsylvania’s overall proportion (8.1 percent) as well.

As of 2021, there were an estimated 166,009 housing units in the six-county region. Statewide, approximately 26.0 percent of housing units were constructed before 1940. In the six-county region, Columbia, Lycoming, and Northumberland Counties have higher shares of housing units built during the same period (27.9 percent, 31.8 percent, and 41.9 percent, respectively). Additionally, 5.7 percent of housing units in the Commonwealth were built after 2010. In the six-county region, Snyder County has nearly matched that share (5.5 percent).rnrnThe breakdown between owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units in the six-county region fluctuated between 2017 and 2021. In each county, homeownership rates have generally spanned between two-thirds and three-fourths of households. Statewide, the share of owner-occupied housing units is nearly 70.0 percent, whereas the share of renter-occupied housing units is approximately 30.0 percent. Only Montour County increased its share of renter-occupied housing units in the six-county region (32.1 percent).rnrnIn terms of vacancy rates, only Montour County has a lower percentage (7.5 percent) than that of the Commonwealth (9.4 percent). As of 2021, Union County had the highest vacancy rate in the region (14.4 percent), followed by Columbia County (13.3 percent).rnrnAs of the latest available data, the median monthly ownership costs (including mortgage payment, property taxes, and other costs of homeownership) as a percentage of median household income for owner-occupied households were notably lower than 2010 proportions in all six counties and statewide. As of 2021, rent costs as a percentage of the median household income for renters have decreased in all counties except for Montour County compared with 2010. However, the above noted trends in the real estate market are already suggesting significant implications on the need for new efforts to ensure access to affordable housing. Affordable housing should not be construed as meaning low-income housing only. Many people working full-time jobs in a variety of occupations such as education, health care, manufacturing, etc. cannot afford some of the market prices.rnrnFinally, homelessness remains a challenge in this region, as with virtually all communities in the United States. With counts altered due to the pandemic, gaps in the data hinder understanding of the true impact of COVID-19 on homelessness. Across the Commonwealth, more than 17.0 percent of all homeless households counted in 2020 were unsheltered, compared to just over 20.0 percent in the region.

Historically, the median household income of the six-county region has been lower than the median household income of Pennsylvania. On average, Pennsylvania’s median has been 22.5 percent higher. However, the median household income of the region increased by 10.8 percent between 2019 and 2021.rnrnPoverty levels are closely linked with unemployment and underemployment; when households lose their livelihood, people have difficulty providing their families with basic necessities. Additionally, low wage jobs contribute to both poverty and the number of households with income above the poverty line but insufficient as a living wage (the income required for a modest but dignified life). Thus, there is great demand for social services and charitable organizations that are themselves competing for limited government and philanthropic funding. In the six-county region, the average share of people living below the poverty line was 10.8 percent as of 2021. This is lower than the statewide share (12.1 percent).rnrnThe Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) enrollment in the six-county region has historically been lower than that of the Commonwealth. Between 2017 and 2021, program usage was 3.1 percent lower on average annually than the statewide usage. In that same period, the average share of households without vehicles available was lower than that of Pennsylvania.rnrnAccording to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the amount of food deserts, defined as low income and low food access Census tracts in the six-county region, decreased from 48 to 46 between 2015 and 2019.rnrnFinally, the six-county region has generally experienced unemployment rates higher than the statewide rate. Between 2020 and 2022, however, the unemployment rate of the six-county region decreased by 45.1 percent.

A rate of job growth higher than the rate of population growth is a potentially good sign for the economy but can also be a leading indicator of a tight labor market. Otherwise, the population may be growing faster than the job market, which may indicate economic stagnation. A poor job growth to population growth ratio can also indicate that a region is becoming a bedroom community, where people come to live but work elsewhere. A job growth ratio that is too high could conversely be a sign of workforce shortage. As of 2021, there were 169,361 people employed in the six-county region, which is a 0.1 percent increase from the region’s total workforce of 2019. Additionally, median wages in the six-county region, on average, are lower than those of the Commonwealth.rnrnThe economic sector with the highest share of employees in the six-county region is health care and social assistance, which comprises 20.1 percent of the total workforce. At the state level, health care and social assistance is also the top industry in terms of employment. Health care and social assistance is the top industry in Lycoming, Montour, and Union Counties, whereas manufacturing is the industry with the largest share of the workforce in Columbia, Northumberland, and Snyder Counties. Northumberland County has the most resilient economy in the region because its workforce is more evenly dispersed among its top four industries than those in the other counties. In contrast, Montour County has the least resilient economy, with 71.4 percent of the workforce in its top four industries employed in health care and social assistance.rnrnHealthcare practitioners and technical occupations are the fastest growing occupations in Lycoming and Montour Counties. Similarly, healthcare support occupations are the fastest growing occupations of Snyder County. The fastest growing occupations of Columbia, Northumberland, and Union Counties are transportation and material moving occupations. While Snyder and Union Counties added to their occupation totals in 2022, the occupation totals of Columbia, Lycoming, Montour, and Northumberland Counties decreased in the same year.rnrnThe fastest growing industry in Lycoming, Montour, and Snyder Counties is health care and social assistance. Transportation and warehousing is the fastest growing industry of Northumberland County, whereas manufacturing is the fastest growing industry of Union County. In Columbia County, the fastest growing industry is the management of companies and enterprises.

In the six-county region, 90.3 percent of adults have a high school diploma or higher. The population of Montour County has the highest percentage of adults with a high school diploma or higher at 91.7 percent, whereas Snyder County has the lowest at 86.5 percent. Similarly, Montour County has the highest percentage of the population 25 years and older that have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher at about 35.6 percent, whereas Northumberland has the lowest at approximately 20.0 percent. Statewide, about 35.0 percent of the population that is 25 years and older has earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.rnrnEmerging industries and occupations demand a diverse range of education and training opportunities, including apprenticeship programs, associate degree or trade school programs, on-the-job training, certificates, credentials, and college and university degrees. In 2021-2022 academic year, 6,555 degrees were awarded in the six-county region – the top three of which are in business administration and management (7.9 percent), registered nursing (6.0 percent), and general psychology (4.8 percent). There has appeared to be a downward trajectory in total degrees awarded since the pandemic. Despite the setbacks posed by COVID-19, the region’s varied group of higher education institutions will continue to be an asset in preparing students for success in the workforce.rnrnTeens and young adults aged 16-19 years who are neither working nor in school are considered disconnected youth. Rates of teens and young adults who are considered disconnected youth have fluctuated between 2018 and 2022. As of 2022, the rate of disconnected youth in the six-county region is 8.5 percent.

The health and wellness section of this report identifies birth rates, infant deaths, health care resources, health insurance, mental health care resources and outcomes, chronic disease, opioids, and violent crime in the five-county region. The birth rate of the six-county region has steadily decreased between the five-year estimates of 2001-05 and 2016-20. Additionally, the infant deaths indicator examines infant mortality rate specifically, which decreased to 5.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in the six-county region during the five-year estimate of 2016-20. This rate is slightly lower than the statewide infant mortality rate of 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births.rnrnThe six-county region is home to multiple health care resources. However, depending on the county, health care resources in the region are considerably higher or lower than those statewide. For instance, only Montour County has a lower ratio of population to dentists in the six-county region than the statewide ratio. Also, Montour and Union Counties have lower ratios of residents to primary care physicians compared to the statewide ratio. These lower ratios indicate greater accessibility to health care resources. Northumberland and Snyder Counties both have far fewer primary care doctors than the state on a per capita basis.rnrnSimilarly, the six-county region is also home to numerous mental health care resources. However, as of 2023, Montour is the only county in the region with a lower ratio of residents to mental health care providers than the statewide ratio. Additionally, the average suicide death rate of the six-county region is slightly higher the statewide suicide death rate.rnrnThe percentage of uninsured residents in the six-county region has fluctuated between 2017 and 2021. As of 2021, the percentage of uninsured residents was 5.5 percent, a decrease from the 2019 average (6.1 percent). Statewide the percentage of uninsured residents is also 5.5 percent.rnrnPersonal behavior impacts many health conditions, including but not limited to adult obesity and diagnosed diabetes. At a time when many area residents are living with low or moderate incomes, healthy choices are not always top priorities. Issues of social determinants and the existence of food deserts in the region also complicate efforts to improve population health. The adult obesity rate has stood at around 35.0 percent regionally and 32.0 percent statewide in recent years, while the diabetes rate of the six-county region stands at nine percent compared to the statewide ten percent.rnrnThe average drug overdose rate increased from 25 to 28 overdoses per 100,000 people in the six-county region between 2018 and 2022, whereas the statewide rate has stood around 36 within the same time frame. The rates of change in the six counties exceeded the statewide rate. Fentanyl is a major factor in persistent deaths from drug overdoses. Despite a slight decrease in 2022, the prevalence of these high-risk behaviors is a significant public health concern.rnrnFinally, the number of murders committed in the six-county region has steadily increased between 2018 and 2022 despite a slight decrease in 2021. Overall, total violent crimes in the region (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) have steadily decreased between 2018 and 2023.

A region’s competitiveness includes more than just its economy, housing, and infrastructure. To attract and retain graduates and skilled workers, quality of life factors of significant. While these aspects of a community are difficult to measure systematically, they include economic activity and investment in the arts and preservation of historic resources and landscapes.rnrnIn addition to making the region a more attractive place to live and work, strong cultural resources drive tourism. As of 2021, spending in the region by visitors amounted to over $994 million, and the economic ripple effects of this activity spread across many industry sectors and communities. Additionally, scenic landscapes and historic resources are another important aspect of tourism development as well as overall quality of life. The region is home to 163 local and state parks. However, there was a decrease in state farmland preservation funding in every county in the region with the exception of Union County in 2021.rnrnSmartphone availability in the six-county region has steadily increased between 2017 and 2021. Most recently, over three-quarters of households in the region have a smartphone available. Broadband internet subscriptions have also steadily increased in the region within the same time frame. As of 2021, over 81.0 percent of households have broadband internet subscriptions in the region.

Lastly, the older adults section of this report examines the older adult population, seniors living alone, grandparents raising grandchildren, skilled nursing care, and disability in the six-county region. Regionally, the older adult population and number of seniors living alone increased from previous year’s totals, whereas the number of grandparents raising grandchildren has decreased.rnrnWhile the daily private hospital rate has gradually increased over recent years, rates for nursing homes have fluctuated. From 2019-20 to 2021-22, the daily room rate for nursing homes rose by 15.2 percent in the six-county region. Except for Snyder County, every county in the region has more nursing home beds per 1,000 seniors compared to the statewide rate. However, the number of beds is lower regionally and statewide compared with the rates in 2017-18. With an increasing population of older adults and growing life expectancy, the capacity to care for older adults will be an important issue to address. This must include care at various levels and home-based solutions as well as skilled nursing facilities.rnrnFinally, the percentage of the population with disabilities in the region has decreased in every county except Columbia and Snyder Counties, which increased by 13.6 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.